OK- so I've been thinking a great deal about this race/run tomorrow. According to the McMillan calculator, my 1/2 time of 1:40:45 (which felt great in the fall) predicts a same-effort result of 3:32 in the marathon. Well, there is no way I'm going to be able to handle 26.2 miles at 8:07 pace, not in this training cycle.
I have to remember my #1 goal for the Flying Pig marathon is to BQ: which is 3:50, which if I run all the miles at 8:45, gets me my goal. Often I think this goal is too conservative, given the training program I am working on, but I have to make sure I get my #1 goal.
So- I am going to play it a bit more conservatively tomorrow, especially during the 1st 10 miles of the 15M at MP. I am going to try and do the 1st 5M at 8:45, 2nd 5M at 8:40, and then give the last 5M whatever I might have left, but staying between 8:30-8:45. This is not my goal race, but I really, really want that BQ!
Interestingly enough, a 5-second per mile increase, from 8:45 to 8:40, only translated into a 2-minute difference in time. So- I'm going to take it nice and slow during the 1st 3.6 miles, then ramp it up for the remaining 15M.